2nd-order consistency — social_map vs actual beliefs (Mafia–Mafia excl., conf≥50)
Calibration — stated confidence vs actual accuracy
Fresh role_assessment probes only, self and "Unknown" guesses excluded. Diagonal = perfect calibration.
Hatched bars = overconfident (accuracy below bin midpoint). Whiskers = 95% CI (Wilson). Bins with n<10 are dimmed — too few observations.
⑂ Branch from here
Fork point: — replays the recorded game from this exact step. Outcomes form a distribution (LLM sampling is stochastic by design).
Replays:
Backend override:
Probes stay on in branches; cost ≈ parent game × replays.